2019 copper market outlook: contradictions still prominent king of color also see macro - driven

Date: 2019-01-19
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Overall copper prices fell in 2018, by 17.42 percent, completely different from market expectations.The reasons for the decline of copper prices are mainly from the macro perspective. First, the momentum of the global recovery is obviously weaker than expected. Except for the outperformance of the us and Japan, other major developed economies have seen their recovery momentum weakened to varying degrees.Second, trade protectionism is on the rise, and this trade dispute shows a different long-term and complex nature.Finally, the fed continued to raise interest rates, the us dollar index and the us bond yield continued to climb, leading to the capital outflow of emerging market countries, currency devaluation, Argentina, Turkey and other countries have different degrees of currency crisis.

In 2019, based on the global economic growth downward judgment, the copper price is difficult to come out of the rally, there is still room for a pullback.Copper has long been supported by 90-cent copper costs, which will rise to $5,836 per tonne in 2019, with the bottom of copper moving up.It is expected that LME luntong will rely on the first-line operation of $5,800 / ton in 2019. Domestic copper futures in Shanghai will fluctuate in the range of 45,000 to 50,000 yuan/ton, while U.S. copper may fluctuate in the range of 2.4 to 2.9.

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